Table of contents

To celebrate the 5th anniversary of Environmental Research Letters (ERL) the publishers of the journal, IOP Publishing, have awarded a prize for the five best articles published in ERL since the journal began in 2006.

The procedure for deciding the winning articles was as thorough as possible to ensure that the most outstanding articles would win the prize. A shortlist of 25 nominated research articles, five for each year since ERL was launched, which were chosen based on a range of criteria including novelty, scientific impact, readership, broad appeal and wider media coverage, was selected. The ERL Editorial Board then assessed and rated these 25 articles in order to choose a winning article for each year.

We would like to announce that the following articles have been awarded ERL's 5th anniversary best article prize:

2006/7The Bodélé depression: a single spot in the Sahara that provides most of the mineral dust to the Amazon forest Ilan Koren, Yoram J Kaufman, Richard Washington, Martin C Todd, Yinon Rudich, J Vanderlei Martins and Daniel Rosenfeld 2006 Environ. Res. Lett.1 014005

2008Causes and impacts of the 2005 Amazon drought Ning Zeng, Jin-Ho Yoon, Jose A Marengo, Ajit Subramaniam, Carlos A Nobre, Annarita Mariotti and J David Neelin 2008 Environ. Res. Lett.3 014002

2009How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming? J A Lowe, C Huntingford, S C B Raper, C D Jones, S K Liddicoat and L K Gohar 2009 Environ. Res. Lett.4 014012

2010Is physical water scarcity a new phenomenon? Global assessment of water shortage over the last two millennia Matti Kummu, Philip J Ward, Hans de Moel and Olli Varis 2010 Environ. Res. Lett.5 034006

2011Implications of urban structure on carbon consumption in metropolitan areas Jukka Heinonen and Seppo Junnila 2011 Environ. Res. Lett.6 014018

Our congratulations go to these authors. In recognition of their outstanding work, we are delighted to offer all of the authors of the winning articles free publication in the journal until the end of 2012.

Of course all of the shortlisted papers were of great merit, and the full list of nominees can be found below (in alphabetical order).

Nominees

Achard F, DeFries R, Eva H, Hansen M, Mayaux P and Stibig H-J 2007 Environ. Res. Lett.2 045022

Baccini A, Laporte N, Goetz S J, Sun M and Dong H 2008 Environ. Res. Lett.3 045011

Barona E, Ramankutty N, Hyman G and Coomes O T 2010 Environ. Res. Lett.5 024002

Charpentier A D, Bergerson J A and MacLean H L 2009 Environ. Res. Lett.4 014005

Chester M V and Horvath A 2009 Environ. Res. Lett.4 024008

Cooley S R and Doney S C 2009 Environ. Res. Lett.4 024007

Diffenbaugh N S, White M A, Jones G V and Ashfaq M 2011 Environ. Res. Lett.6 024024

Farrell A E and Brandt A R 2006 Environ. Res. Lett.1 014004

Graham W M, Condon R H, Carmichael R H, D'Ambra I, Patterson H K, Linn L J and Hernandez F J Jr 2010 Environ. Res. Lett.5 045301

Hansen J E 2007 Environ. Res. Lett.2 024002

Heinonen J and Junnila S 2011 Environ. Res. Lett.6 014018

Jackson R B et al 2008 Environ. Res. Lett.3 044006

Jiang M, Michael Griffin W, Hendrickson C, Jaramillo P, VanBriesen J and Venkatesh A 2011 Environ. Res. Lett.6 034014

Koren I, Kaufman Y J, Washington R, Todd M C, Rudich Y, Martins J V and Rosenfeld D 2006 Environ. Res. Lett.1 014005

Kummu M, Ward P J, de Moel H and Varis O 2010 Environ. Res. Lett.5 034006

Lau W K M, Kim M-K, Kim K-M and Lee W-S 2010 Environ. Res. Lett.5 025204

Lindeboom H J et al 2011 Environ. Res. Lett.6 035101

Lowe J A, Huntingford C, Raper S C B, Jones C D, Liddicoat S K and Gohar L K 2009 Environ. Res. Lett.4 014012

Möhler O, Benz S, Saathoff H, Schnaiter M, Wagner R, Schneider J, Walter S, Ebert V and Wagner S 2008 Environ. Res. Lett.3 025007

Menon S, Akbari H, Mahanama S, Sednev I and Levinson R 2010 Environ. Res. Lett.5 014005

Schneider A, Friedl M A and Potere D 2009 Environ. Res. Lett.4 044003

Sloan T and Wolfendale A W 2008 Environ. Res. Lett.3 024001

Tedesco M, Fettweis X, van den Broeke M R, van de Wal R S W, Smeets C J P P, van de Berg W J, Serreze M C and Box J E 2011 Environ. Res. Lett.6 014005

Wang M, Wu M and Huo H 2007 Environ. Res. Lett.2 024001

Zeng N, Yoon J H, Marengo J A, Subramaniam A, Nobre C A, Mariotti A and Neelin J D 2008 Environ. Res. Lett.3 014002

The subject of climate change in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Himalayas has taken on increasing importance because of the availability of water resources from their mountain glaciers (Immerzeel et al 2010). Many of the glaciers over these regions have been retreating, while some are advancing and stable (Yao et al 2004, Scherler et al 2011). Other studies report that some glaciers in the Himalayas show acceleration of their shrinkage (e.g., Fujita and Nuimura 2011). However, the causes of glacier melting are still difficult to grasp because of the complexity of climatic change and its influence on glacier issues. Despite this, it is vital that we pursue further study to enable future predictions of glacier changes.

The paper entitled 'Climate and glacier change in southwestern China during the past several decades' by Li et al (2011) provided carefully analyzed, quality controlled, long-term data on atmospheric temperature and precipitation during the period 1961–2008. The data were obtained from 111 Chinese stations. The researchers performed systematic analyses of temperature and precipitation over the whole southwestern Chinese domain. They discussed those changes in terms of other meteorological components such as atmospheric circulation patterns, radiation and altitude difference, and then showed how these factors could contribute to climate and glacier changes in the region.

Air temperature and precipitation are strongly associated with glacier mass balance because of heat balance and the addition of mass when it snows. Temperature warming trends over many places in southwestern China were unequivocally dominant in all seasons and at higher altitudes. This indicates that the heat contribution to the glaciers has been increasing. On the other hand, precipitation has a wider variability in time and space. It is more difficult to clearly understand the effect of precipitation on the climate and glacier melting characteristics in the whole of southwestern China as a collective view. However, the precipitation patterns in southwestern China are probably modulated by climate feedbacks through many factors. Precipitation seasonality may also affect the climatic sensitivity of glacier mass balance (Fujita 2008).

In addition to the authors' main focus above, other factors, also probably directly and indirectly, influence the climate and glacier mass balance changes. Those factors are: (a) The debris-covered effect which heats (if it is thin) or insulates (if it is thick) the ice below the debris; it probably causes no uniform response on glacier melting (Scherler et al 2011); (b) Interaction between glacial lakes and exposed ice parts on glaciers (e.g., Sakai et al 2009, Fujita et al 2009); (c) The atmospheric heating effect over the foothills of the Himalayas due to the Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC), including absorbing aerosols such as black carbon, dust and organic matters (Ramanathan et al 2007), the so called Elevated Heat Pump (EHP) effect suggested by Lau et al (2006, 2010); (d) The snow darkening effect over non debris-covered parts of glaciers as the absorbing aerosol depositions reduce snow albedo and accelerate snow melting by absorbing more solar energy at the snow surface (Warren and Wiscombe 1980, Flanner et al 2007, 2009, Yasunari et al 2010, Qian et al 2011); (e) Another kind of snow darkening effect over non debris-covered glaciers due to the growth of biological activities, with dark-colored materials on glaciers also reducing snow albedo (Takeuchi et al 2001); (f) Other factors on snow albedo reductions such as snow grain size, specific surface area and depth changes, melt-water effect on snow, and changes in solar illumination conditions (e.g., Wiscombe and Warren 1980, Flanner et al 2006, Yasunari et al 2011, Aoki et al 1999, 2011); and finally, (g) Feedbacks via interactions between the snow surface and atmosphere including all the factors above.

What I'd like to emphasize is that the atmospheric warming trend indicated by Li et al (2011) is robust and very likely associated with the dominant characteristics of glacier shrinkage across southwestern China, as discussed by the authors. However, the shrinkage rate of sub-regional scale variability is probably due to the modulation of precipitation, as well as the other factors identified above. Further, atmospheric warming is not limited only to southwestern China, but is also probable in the surrounding Tibetan and Himalayan regions (Gautam et al 2010).

Comprehensive studies, including international projects discussing all the contributors above by (a) field observations, (b) global or regional modeling, and (c) satellite data analyses, are essential to assess the future climate change and glacier retreat in/around the TP and Himalayas. The authors' findings showed robust information on atmospheric warming trends and some wider variety on precipitation during 1961–2008 in southwestern China. In addition, they indicated some possible connections between these findings and atmospheric circulation, altitudinal difference and meteorological conditions. Future studies should promote a deeper discussion and understanding of these relationships.

Hereafter, we must make a committed effort to study climate and glacier issues in/around the TP and Himalayas involving the existing warming trend. This trend fluctuates year-by-year. The fluctuation of the warming and precipitation changes may directly contribute to climate change and glacier retreats. However, the seven factors noted above likely modulate the climate change and glacier melting patterns in southwestern China on the warming trend in intra- and inter-annual timescales. The temperature and precipitation data in this study offer a terrific asset for future studies on climate and glacier issues in/around this region.

Acknowledgement I wish to thank Jan Angevine at NASA/GSFC for proofreading.

References

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Takeuchi N, Kohshima S and Seko K 2001 Structure, formation, darkening process of albedo reducing material (cryoconite) on a Himalayan glacier: a granular algal mat growing on the glacier Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res.33 115–22

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Yao T D, Wang Y, Liu S, Pu J, Shen Y and Lu A 2004 Recent glacial retreat in high Asia in China and its impact on water resource in Northwest China Sci. China Ser. D 47 1065–75

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Yasunari T J, Koster R D, Lau K M, Aoki Te, Sud Y C, Yamazaki T, Motoyoshi H and Kodama Y 2011 Influence of dust and black carbon on the snow albedo in the NASA GEOS-5 land surface model J. Geophys. Res.116 D02210

The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011).

Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011).

Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007).

However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI and WRI 2000, Nordhaus 2006) and there is also some information on road networks and the travel time to the nearest cities (Nelson 2008). However, this information has not so far been integrated to facilitate analyses of market access and market influence, which has hampered many socio-economic analyses to date.

The analysis by Verburg et al (2011) provides an important improvement in this respect. They developed a consistent global dataset on various market accessibility indicators on a 1 km² spatial resolution. Their analysis shows that market access is distinctly different from population patterns in some regions, which may help us to understand the prevalence of current economic conditions there. These are mostly areas with high population density, but little access to markets and, hence, a large share of subsistence farming and local economic activities.

Measures of market access and market influence can improve our understanding about the drivers of environmental change, as they link regional and global economic activity to local environmental conditions. They can also help to assess, design and implement targeted measures to reduce environmental pressure and improve ecosystem services. The analysis and dataset provided by Verburg et al demonstrates the kind of valuable insights that can be generated by an integration of earth observation data, local case studies and modeling efforts at different spatial scales. This integration can improve monitoring, modeling and management of various global environmental changes, which will contribute to more sustainable economic development (Lotze-Campen et al 2008).

Moreover, local market access is an important factor for economic development, poverty and food security. Aggregate, national figures, such as the human development index, do not provide sufficient detail. In many developing countries, certain rural areas lack market access and related options for development, as shown by Verburg et al for e.g. Nigeria and Ethiopia. Together with data from household studies, the new dataset could provide the basis for improved assessments of targeted infrastructure investment, which could help to reduce environmental degradation, promote economic development and alleviate poverty.

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The GIMMS NDVI dataset has been widely used to document a 'browning trend' in North American boreal forests (Goetz et al 2005, Bunn et al 2007, Beck and Goetz 2011). However, there has been speculation (Alcaraz-Segura et al 2010) that this trend may be an artifact due to processing algorithms rather than an actual decline in vegetation activity. This conclusion was based primarily on the fact that GIMMS NDVI did not capture NDVI recovery within most burned areas in boreal Canada, while another dataset consistently showed post-fire increasing NDVI. I believe that the results of Alcaraz-Segura et al (2010) were due simply to different pixel sizes of the two datasets (64 km² versus 1 km² pixels). Similar results have been obtained from tundra areas greening in Alaska, with the results simply due to these pixel size differences (Stow et al 2007). Furthermore, recent studies have documented boreal browning trends based on NDVI from other sensors. Beck and Goetz (2011) have shown the boreal browning trend derived from a different sensor (MODIS) to be very similar to the boreal browning trend derived from the GIMMS NDVI dataset for the circumpolar boreal region. Parent and Verbyla (2010) found similar declining NDVI patterns based on NDVI from Landsat sensors and GIMMS NDVI in boreal Alaska. Zhang et al (2008) found a similar 'browning trend' in boreal North America based on a production efficiency model using an integrated AVHRR and MODIS dataset.

The declining NDVI trend in areas of boreal North America is consistent with tree-ring studies (D'Arrigo et al 2004, McGuire et al 2010, Beck et al 2011). The decline in tree growth may be due to temperature-induced drought stress (Barber et al 2000) caused by higher evaporative demands in a warming climate (Lloyd and Fastie 2002). In a circumpolar boreal study, Lloyd and Bunn (2007) found that a negative relationship between temperature and tree-ring growth occurred more frequently in warmer parts of species' ranges, suggesting that direct temperature stress might be a factor in some species. Since warm growing seasons are also typically dry growing seasons, direct temperature stress and moisture stress could occur simultaneously. For example, 2004 was the warmest summer in over 200 years in boreal Alaska (Barber et al 2004) but it was also during a drought with less than 50 mm of summer precipitation recorded in Fairbanks. In Fairbanks, the length of the growing season, as defined as the period above freezing, has increased by 45 per cent over the past 100 years, with no significant increase in precipitation (Wendler and Shulski 2009). Regional winter runoff has increased, likely associated with permafrost thawing (Brabets and Walvoord 2009), while surface water has decreased, likely associated with increased evapotranspiration (Riordan et al 2006, Anderson et al 2007, Berg et al 2009). The mean annual air temperature in boreal Alaska has increased by over 1.5 °C during the past 50 years (Stafford et al 2000), and is projected to increase by 3–7 °C by end of this century (Walsh et al 2008). Thus, it would be surprising if a declining NDVI trend was not occurring in the western boreal region of North America as the climate continues to warm.

Insects and disease in the North American boreal forest may also affect the NDVI browning trends (Malmström and Raffa 2000), as the life histories of damaging insects may be linked to a warming boreal climate. For example, warmer temperatures contributed to the spruce beetle outbreaks in Alaska with a reduction in the beetle life cycle from two years to one year (Berg et al 2006). Thus, as the boreal climate continues to warm, tree growth reduction and mortality from insects and diseases may become more substantial. In boreal Alaska, recent alder dieback and mortality is likely to be related to alder's susceptibility to a canker-causing fungus in drought years (Ruess et al 2009). Recent widespread and prolonged outbreaks of aspen leaf miner and a willow leaf blotch miner in boreal Alaska are likely to have resulted in decreased NDVI (Parent and Verbyla 2010).

The NDVI browning trend has expanded in area in boreal North America (Beck and Goetz 2011). If the trend towards a warmer and drier climate continues, these areas may represent a future tipping point where drought-induced mortality across a boreal region may occur. Such events have already occurred in the western United States (van Mantgem et al 2009) and the aspen parklands of the southern Canadian boreal forest (Michaelian et al 2010).

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Climate change appears to be altering boreal forests. One recently observed symptom of these changes has been an apparent weakening of the positive relationship between high-latitude boreal tree growth and temperature at some sites (D'Arrigo et al 2008). This phenomenon is referred to as the 'divergence problem' or 'divergence effect' and is thought to reflect a non-linear relationship between temperature and tree growth, where recent warming has allowed other factors besides growing-season temperature to emerge as dominant regulators of annual growth rates.

Figure 1 demonstrates this divergence phenomenon with records of tree-ring widths collected from 59 populations of white spruce in Alaska ¹. Key tendencies among these populations include: (1) growth is most sensitive to temperature during relatively cold growing seasons (figure 1(a)), (2) populations at colder sites are more sensitive to temperature than those at warmer sites are (figure 1(a)), and (3) growth at warmer sites may respond negatively to increased temperature beyond some optimal growing-season temperature (figure 1(b)). Since temperature is rising rapidly at high latitudes, one interpretation of figures 1(a) and (b) is that warming has promoted increased growth at colder sites, but caused growth to plateau or slow at warmer sites. Corroborating this interpretation, satellite imagery and tree-ring data indicate increasing vegetation productivity near the forest-tundra boundary but declining productivity in warmer regions within forest interiors (e.g., Bunn and Goetz 2006, Beck and Goetz 2011, Beck et al 2011, Berner et al 2011).

Will continued warming cause a northward migration of boreal forests, with mortality in the warmer, southern locations and expansion into the colder tundra? This question is difficult to answer because many factors besides temperature influence boreal forest dynamics.

Widespread productivity declines within interior boreal forests appear to be related to warming-induced drought stress (Barber et al 2000). Notably, this response may be more complicated than simply a decline in soil moisture. Even when soil moisture is plentiful, warming can negatively impact plant growth and survival by causing increased respiratory consumption of stored carbohydrates (McDowell 2011) and decreased stomatal conductance due to hydraulic limitation (Flexas et al 2004). Some degree of acclimation may be occurring, as white spruce populations that experience moderate temperatures and precipitation have lower optimal growth temperatures than populations at warmer, drier sites do (figure 1(c)). Yet, populations at the warmest or driest sites show strong growth declines during warm periods, consistent with a decline in the viability of these populations in some regions (Goetz et al 2005, Beck and Goetz 2011, Beck et al 2011). Can interior boreal forests acclimate to the current era's rapid warming? Or will temperatures within interior boreal forests outpace or extend beyond the adaptive capabilities of boreal tree species? The answer remains a mystery, partly because important aspects of acclimation are still poorly understood, and partly because of other important processes such as wildfire and increases in CO₂ concentration, nitrogen deposition, growing-season length, and tropospheric ozone concentration.

Figure 1. Relationships between white spruce tree-ring widths and climate at 59 sites in Alaska. (a) Annual correlation between ring-width index and June–July average temperature during years when June--July temperature was colder (blue bars) and warmer (red bars) than average. Pairs of bars represent the coldest 20 sites (left), 19 sites with intermediate temperature (middle) and the warmest 20 sites (right). (b) Spline curves that represent the best-fit relationship between temperature (x-axis) and ring-width index variability (y-axis) at cold sites (blue line), intermediate sites (black line) and warm sites (orange line). (c) Same as (b) but for the wettest 20 sites (green line), 19 sites with intermediate annual precipitation (black line) and the driest 20 sites (brown line). Error bars in (a)–(c) are standard errors.

Perhaps an even bigger mystery is what the future has in store at the cold ecotone where boreal forest gives way to arctic tundra. Just as for warmer sites, there tends to be a temperature threshold at cold and intermediate sites, above which further warming no longer positively influences growth rate (figures 1(a) and (b)). Rather than reverse sign once this threshold is surpassed, growth–temperature relationships at cold and intermediate sites tend to simply disappear or at least diminish. This is because metabolic rates are slow in the cold, but are optimal under moderately warmer conditions (Tjoelker et al 2009). As temperature increases into a range of variability that no longer limits metabolic rate, a host of other climatic and soil-related factors can limit or promote growth and seedling recruitment. At some cool treeline sites, rapidly rising temperatures may have already surpassed the level that supports optimal growth, as negative relationships have emerged between temperature and growth rate in most decades (McGuire et al 2010).

In a recent contribution to this important body of research, Andreu-Hayles et al (2011) studied growth–temperature relations within a white spruce population growing at the northern treeline in Alaska. Consistent with observations elsewhere in boreal forests, Andreu-Hayles et al discovered that a positive and significant relationship between ring widths and June–July temperature during 1901–1950 disappeared during 1951–2000. Interestingly, ring widths and temperature both increased throughout the 20th century at this treeline site, in contrast to recent trends at many other sites in Alaska where warming is outpacing ring widths (e.g., D'Arrigo et al 2008). At the site studied by Andreu-Hayles et al, it seems recent warming has caused a release of white spruce growth from temperature limitation and there is now a new sheriff in town regulating annual growth rate. Who this new sheriff is, however, remains an open and important question.

Another interesting result in the Andreu-Hayles et al study is that the relationship between temperature and density of tree-ring latewood (the dark band formed at the end of the growing season) was stable throughout the 20th century. This means that although temperature may no longer be the primary factor governing annual growth, it still has an important physiological impact at the end of the growing season. The stability of the latewood density–temperature relationship also offers a promising implication for dendroclimatic studies. While non-linear relationships between ring widths and temperature may make it difficult to use ring widths to infer information about historical temperature variability for some sites, Andreu-Hayles et al add to the evidence (e.g., Barber et al 2000, Davi et al 2003, D'Arrigo et al 2009) that latewood density may be particularly useful in reconstructing historical temperature at high latitudes.

While the divergence problem and new contribution by Andreu-Hayles et al are interesting on their own, they are also important because they highlight the current limits to our understanding of the mechanisms driving boreal forest growth and survival. As Allen et al (2010) pointed out, understanding and predicting the consequences of climate changes on forests is emerging as a grand challenge for global change scientists. This is particularly true at high latitudes because boreal forests store ~32% of Earth's terrestrial forest carbon, more than twice that of temperate forests (Pan et al 2011). Will continued warming turn boreal forests into a sink or source of atmospheric CO₂? And will boreal forest growth and distribution change enough to significantly impact the energy balance of high latitude landscapes and thereby influence large-scale atmospheric circulation?

To answer these questions, it is critical to understand the factors influencing boreal forest growth under warmer conditions and how the relative contributions of these factors vary spatially. Our understanding of these factors can be improved through research campaigns that integrate field-measurements, remote sensing and ecological modeling (Goetz et al 2011). Field-studies that measure the physiological responses of trees to manipulations of environmental variables such as temperature, soil moisture, soil nutrients and insolation are critical for informing ecological models that predict forest responses to various scenarios of climate and environmental change. Remote sensing is critical in validating modeled projections of forest growth. At present, ecological models do poorly at characterizing observed trends in boreal-forest productivity in some regions (Beck et al 2011). It will be exciting in the coming years to see how field measurements, modeling and remote sensing can work together to resolve the mysteries of the divergence problem, how warming will influence the overall productivity and distribution of boreal forests, and how changes in boreal-forest characteristics may influence regional and global climates.

References

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Andreu-Hayles L, D'Arrigo R, Anchukaitis K J, Beck P S A, Frank D and Goetz S 2011 Varying boreal forest response to Arctic environmental change at the Firth River, Alaska Environ. Res. Lett.6 045503

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¹ Tree-ring data: ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering. Climate data: snap.uaf.edu/downloads/alaska-climate-datasets.

Vegetation change can affect the magnitude and direction of global climate change via its effect on carbon cycling among plants, the soil and the atmosphere. The invasion of non-native plants is a major cause of land cover change, of biodiversity loss, and of other changes in ecosystem structure and function. In California, annual grasses from Mediterranean Europe have nearly displaced native perennial grasses across the coastal hillsides and terraces of the state. Our study examines the impact of this invasion on carbon cycling and storage at two sites in northern coastal California. The results suggest that annual grass invasion has caused an average drop in soil carbon storage of 40 Mg/ha in the top half meter of soil, although additional mechanisms may also contribute to soil carbon losses. We attribute the reduction in soil carbon storage to low rates of net primary production in non-native annuals relative to perennial grasses, a shift in rooting depth and water use to primarily shallow sources, and soil respiratory losses in non-native grass soils that exceed production rates. These results indicate that even seemingly subtle land cover changes can significantly impact ecosystem functions in general, and carbon storage in particular.

Sustainable environmental management is one of the key development goals of the 21st century. The importance of Earth observation (EO) for addressing current environmental problems is well recognized. Most developing countries are highly susceptible to environmental degradation; however, the capacity to monitor these changes is predominantly located in the developed world. Decades of aid and effort have been invested in capacity development (CD) with the goal of ensuring sustainable development. Academics, given their level of freedom and their wider interest in teaching and knowledge transfer, are ideally placed to act as catalyst for capacity building. In this letter, we make a novel investigation into the extent to which the EO academic research community is engaged in capacity development. Using the Web of Knowledge publication database (http://wok.mimas.ac.uk), we examined the geographical distribution of published EO related research (a) by country as object of research and (b) by authors' country of affiliation. Our results show that, while a significant proportion of EO research (44%) has developing countries as their object of research, less than 3% of publications have authors working in, or affiliated to, a developing country (excluding China, India and Brazil, which not only are countries in transition, but also have well established EO capacity). These patterns appear consistent over the past 20 years. Despite the wide awareness of the importance of CD, we show that significant progress on this front is required. We therefore propose a number of recommendations and best practices to ease collaboration and open access.

Forest-fragmentation-related edge effects are one of the major causes of forest degradation in Amazonia and their spatio-temporal dynamics are highly influenced by annual deforestation patterns. Rapid biomass collapse due to edge effects in forest fragments has been reported in the Brazilian Amazon; however the collective impacts of this process on Amazonian carbon fluxes are poorly understood. We estimated biomass loss and carbon emissions from deforestation and forest fragmentation related to edge effects on the basis of the INPE (Brazilian National Space Research Institute) PRODES deforestation data and forest biomass volume data. The areas and ages of edge forests were calculated annually and the corresponding biomass loss and carbon emissions from these forest edges were estimated using published rates of biomass decay and decomposition corresponding to the areas and ages of edge forests. Our analysis estimated carbon fluxes from deforestation (4195 Tg C) and edge forest (126–221 Tg C) for 2001–10 in the Brazilian Amazon. The impacts of varying rates of deforestation on regional forest fragmentation and carbon fluxes were also investigated, with the focus on two periods: 2001–5 (high deforestation rates) and 2006–10 (low deforestation rates). Edge-released carbon accounted for 2.6–4.5% of deforestation-related carbon emissions. However, the relative importance of carbon emissions from forest fragmentation increased from 1.7–3.0% to 3.3–5.6% of the respective deforestation emissions between the two contrasting deforestation rates. Edge-related carbon fluxes are of increasing importance for basin-wide carbon accounting, especially as regards ongoing reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) efforts in Brazilian Amazonia.

During the World Exposition 2010 (Expo, from May to October), emission control measures were implemented in Shanghai and surrounding areas to improve the air quality. To evaluate the effect of these measures, we use the tropospheric NO₂ column, aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and CO concentration observations from the satellite instruments GOME-2, MODIS and MOPITT, respectively. The analysis shows about 8% and 14% reductions of tropospheric NO₂ columns and AOT respectively over Shanghai during the Expo period, compared to the past three years. A 12% reduction of CO concentration at 700 hPa over Shanghai and surrounding areas is found during the Expo period. On the other hand, the satellite measurements show increases of NO₂ by 20% and AOT by 23% over Shanghai urban areas after the Expo (November 2010–April 2011), when the short-term emission control measures were lifted. Our study indicates that the air quality measures were effective in Shanghai and surrounding provinces during the Expo period.

In the last 10 years a number of new global datasets have been created and new, more sophisticated algorithms have been designed to classify land cover. GlobCover and MODIS v.5 are the most recent global land cover products available, where GlobCover (300 m) has the finest spatial resolution of other comparable products such as MODIS v.5 (500 m) and GLC-2000 (1 km). This letter shows that the thematic accuracy in the cropland domain has decreased when comparing these two latest products. This disagreement is also evident spatially when examining maps of cropland and forest disagreement between GLC-2000, MODIS and GlobCover. The analysis highlights the continued uncertainty surrounding these products, with a combined forest and cropland disagreement of 893 Mha (GlobCover versus MODIS v.5). This letter suggests that data sharing efforts and the provision of more in situ data for training, calibration and validation are very important conditions for improving future global land cover products.

We report the results of the first large-scale international survey of public perception of geoengineering and solar radiation management (SRM). Our sample of 3105 individuals in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom was recruited by survey firms that administer internet surveys to nationally representative population samples. Measured familiarity was higher than expected, with 8% and 45% of the population correctly defining the terms geoengineering and climate engineering respectively. There was strong support for allowing the study of SRM. Support decreased and uncertainty rose as subjects were asked about their support for using SRM immediately, or to stop a climate emergency. Support for SRM is associated with optimism about scientific research, a valuing of SRM's benefits and a stronger belief that SRM is natural, while opposition is associated with an attitude that nature should not be manipulated in this way. The potential risks of SRM are important drivers of public perception with the most salient being damage to the ozone layer and unknown risks. SRM is a new technology and public opinions are just forming; thus all reported results are sensitive to changes in framing, future information on risks and benefits, and changes to context.

The Arctic climate is changing faster than any other large-scale region on Earth. A variety of positive feedback mechanisms are responsible for the amplification, most of which are linked with changes in snow and ice cover, surface temperature (T_s), atmospheric water vapor (WV), and cloud properties. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, air temperature and water vapor content also increase, leading to a warmer surface and ice loss, which further enhance evaporation and WV. Many details of these interrelated feedbacks are poorly understood, yet are essential for understanding the pace and regional variations in future Arctic change. We use a global climate model (Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Atmosphere–Ocean Model) to examine several components of these feedbacks, how they vary by season, and how they are projected to change through the 21st century. One positive feedback begins with an increase in T_s that produces an increase in WV, which in turn increases the downward longwave flux (DLF) and T_s, leading to further evaporation. Another associates the expected increases in cloud cover and optical thickness with increasing DLF and T_s. We examine the sensitivities between DLF and other climate variables in these feedbacks and find that they are strongest in the non-summer seasons, leading to the largest amplification in T_s during these months. Later in the 21st century, however, DLF becomes less sensitive to changes in WV and cloud optical thickness, as they cause the atmosphere to emit longwave radiation more nearly as a black body. This regime shift in sensitivity implies that the amplified pace of Arctic change relative to the northern hemisphere could relax in the future.

New techniques to extract natural gas from unconventional resources have become economically competitive over the past several years, leading to a rapid and largely unanticipated expansion in natural gas production. The US Energy Information Administration projects that unconventional gas will supply nearly half of US gas production by 2035. In addition, by significantly expanding and diversifying the gas supply internationally, the exploitation of new unconventional gas resources has the potential to reshape energy policy at national and international levels—altering geopolitics and energy security, recasting the economics of energy technology investment decisions, and shifting trends in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In anticipation of this expansion, one of the perceived core advantages of unconventional gas—its relatively moderate GHG impact compared to coal—has recently come under scrutiny. In this paper, we compare the GHG footprints of conventional natural gas, unconventional natural gas (i.e. shale gas that has been produced using the process of hydraulic fracturing, or 'fracking'), and coal in a transparent and consistent way, focusing primarily on the electricity generation sector. We show that for electricity generation the GHG impacts of shale gas are 11% higher than those of conventional gas, and only 56% that of coal for standard assumptions.

Adapting to the health effects of climate change is one of the key challenges facing public health this century. Our knowledge of progress on adaptation, however, remains in its infancy. Using the Fifth National Communications of Annex I parties to the UNFCCC, 1912 initiatives are systematically identified and analyzed. 80% of the actions identified consist of groundwork (i.e. preparatory) action, with only 20% constituting tangible adaptations. No health vulnerability was recognized by all 38 Annex I countries. Furthermore, while all initiatives affect at least one health vulnerability, only 15% had an explicit human health component. Consideration for the special needs of vulnerable groups is uneven and underdeveloped. Climate change is directly motivating 71% of groundwork actions, and 61% of adaptation initiatives are being mainstreamed into existing institutions or programs. We conclude that the adaptation responses to the health risks of climate change remain piecemeal. Policymakers in the health sector must engage with stakeholders to implement adaptation that considers how climate change will impact the health of each segment of the population, particularly within those groups already considered most vulnerable to poor health outcomes.

Climatic effects of forest cover change have been investigated for Hungary. For the time period 2071–100 we have analyzed whether the climate change signal for summer precipitation and the probability of droughts can be reduced assuming maximal afforestation for the entire country (forests covering all vegetated areas). The biogeophysical effects of land cover change have been assessed using the results of an A1B IPCC-SRES emission scenario from REMO (regional climate model at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg). The simulation results indicate that afforestation may reduce the projected climate change through higher evapotranspiration and precipitation as well as lower surface temperature for the entire summer period. The magnitude of the feedback of the forest cover increase on precipitation differs among regions. The strongest effects are visible in the northeastern part of the country. Here, half of the projected precipitation decrease can be relieved and the total number of drought events can be reduced, assuming maximal afforestation. Afforestation brings about the smallest climatic effect in the southwestern region, in the area that shows the strongest climate change. The results can help to identify areas where forest cover increase should most effectively support the alleviation of climate change effects.

Using aerosol loading data from 79 Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) stations with observations from more than six years, changes in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Angstrom wavelength exponent (AWE) were studied. A statistical method was developed to determine whether AOD changes were due to increased background AOD values and/or an increased number of high AOD events. AOD decreased significantly at AERONET sites in northeastern North American and in Western Europe, which was accompanied by decreased AWE. Reduction of AOD there was mainly due to a decreased frequency of high AOD events and an increased frequency of background AOD events. In addition, decreased AOD values for high AOD events also accounted for ∼ 16–32% of the AOD reduction. This is indicative of significant meteorological effects on AOD variability. AOD trends in other regions were marginal and most were not significant; however, AOD increased significantly at one site in the Sahel and another in Saudi Arabia, predominantly due to the increased frequency of high AOD events and their average AOD.

The distribution, sources and ecological risk of heavy metals in surface sediments from Lake Taihu were studied. Results showed that the measured heavy metals had varied spatial distribution patterns, indicating that they had complex origins and controlling factors. Pearson's correlation analysis revealed that the total phosphorus and the loss on ignition were positively correlated with the measured metals except Cd. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis demonstrated that Hg, Cu, Cr, Cd and Pb might originate from domestic sewage and industrial wastewater, whereas As predominantly originated from natural processes. Potential ecological risk indices indicated that sediment from Wuli Lake, Gonghu Bay and the Northwest Area suffered high pollution, whereas other areas of Lake Taihu were moderately polluted. A comparison of metal levels with the effects range low (ERL) and effects range median (ERM) showed that metals exceeded their corresponding ERL limit at 13.6–72.3% (72.3% for As, 52.4% for Pb, 27.7% for Cu, 22.8% for Cd, 16.0 for Hg and 13.6% for Cr) of the sites investigated. Moreover, 3.90% and 0.50% of the sites sampled exceeded the ERM thresholds for Hg and Pb, respectively.

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) influence climate by suppressing canopy transpiration in addition to its well-known greenhouse gas effect. The decrease in plant transpiration is due to changes in plant physiology (reduced opening of plant stomata). Here, we quantify such changes in water flux for various levels of CO₂ concentrations using the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR) Community Land Model. We find that photosynthesis saturates after 800 ppmv (parts per million, by volume) in this model. However, unlike photosynthesis, canopy transpiration continues to decline at about 5.1% per 100 ppmv increase in CO₂ levels. We also find that the associated reduction in latent heat flux is primarily compensated by increased sensible heat flux. The continued decline in canopy transpiration and subsequent increase in sensible heat flux at elevated CO₂ levels implies that incremental warming associated with the physiological effect of CO₂ will not abate at higher CO₂ concentrations, indicating important consequences for the global water and carbon cycles from anthropogenic CO₂ emissions.

Increasing land consumption and land demand particularly in mountainous regions entail further expansion of settlements to known hazard-prone areas. Potential impacts as well as regionally defined levels of 'acceptable risk' are often not transparently communicated and residual risks are not perceived by the public. Analysing past events and assessing regional damage potentials can help planners on all levels to improve comprehensive and sustainable risk management. In this letter, a geospatial and statistical approach to regional damage cost assessment is presented, integrating information on actual conditions in terms of land use disparities and recorded damage data from a documented severe flooding event. In a first step building objects are categorized according to their function and use. Tabular company information is linked to the building model via geocoded postal address data, enabling classification of building types in terms of predominant uses. For the disaster impact assessment the flood plain is delineated based on post-disaster aerial imagery and a digital terrain model distinguishing areas of long and short term flooding. Finally, four regional damage cost assessment scenarios on different levels of detail are calculated. The damage cost projection relies on available sample building-level damage records, allowing rough damage averaging for distinct building uses. Results confirm that consideration of local land use patterns is essential for optimizing regional damage cost projections.

Before adopting modern corn-and-grain-based western processed diets, circumpolar people had a high fat and protein subsistence diet and exhibited a low incidence of obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Some health benefits are attributable to a subsistence diet that is rich in omega-3 fatty acids and antioxidants. Pollution, both global and local, is a threat to wild foods, as it introduces contaminants into the food system. Northern indigenous people and their sled dogs are exposed to a variety of contaminants, including mercury, that accumulate in the fish and game that they consume. The sled dogs in Alaskan villages are maintained on the same subsistence foods as their human counterparts, primarily salmon, and therefore they can be used as a food systems model for researching the impact of changes in dietary components. In this study, the antioxidant status and mercury levels were measured for village sled dogs along the Yukon River. A reference kennel, maintained on a nutritionally balanced commercial diet, was also measured for comparison. Total antioxidant status was inversely correlated with the external stressor mercury.

Conversion of wetlands by drainage for agriculture or other anthropogenic activities could have a negative or positive feedback to global warming (GWF). We suggest that a major predictor of the GWF is salinity of the wetland soil (a proxy for available sulfate), a factor often ignored in other studies. We assess the radiative balance of two northern salt marshes with average soil salinities > 20 ppt, but with high (macro-) and low (micro-) tidal amplitudes. The flux of greenhouse gases from soils at the end of the growing season averaged 485 ± 253 mg m ^{− 2} h ^{− 1}, 13 ± 30 µg m ^{− 2} h ^{− 1}, and 19 ± 58 µg m ^{− 2} h ^{− 1} in the microtidal marsh and 398 ± 201 mg m ^{− 2} h ^{− 1}, 2 ± 26 µg m ^{− 2} h ^{− 1}, and 35 ± 77 µg m ^{− 2} h ^{− 1} in the macrotidal marsh for CO₂, N₂O, and CH₄, respectively. High rates of C sequestration mean that loss of these marshes would have a radiative balance of − 981 CO₂_eq. m ^{− 2} yr ^{− 1} in the microtidal and − 567 CO₂_eq. m ^{− 2} yr ^{− 1} in the macrotidal marsh.

The cost of energy produced by offshore wind turbines is considered to be higher than land based ones because of the difficulties in construction, operation and maintenance on offshore sites. To solve the problem, we propose a concept of a wind turbine that is specially designed for an offshore environment. In the proposed concept, a floater of revolutionary shape supports the load of the wind turbine axis. The floater rotates with the turbine and the turbine axis tilts to balance the turbine thrust, buoyancy and gravity. The tilt angle is passively adjustable to wind force. The angle is 30° at rated power. The simplicity of the system leads to further cost reduction of offshore power generation.

The possibility of using electricity dispatching strategies to achieve a 50% nitrogen oxide (NOx) emission reduction from electricity generating units was examined using the grid of the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas as a case study. Simulations of a hypothetical policy demonstrate that imposing higher NOx prices induces a switch from some coal-fired generation to natural gas generation, lowering NOx emissions. The simulation is for a day with relatively high electricity demand and accounts for transmission constraints. In addition to the lowering of the NOx emissions, there are co-benefits of the redispatching of generation from coal to natural gas, including reductions in the emissions of sulfur oxides (24%–71%), Hg (16%–82%) and CO₂ (8.8%–22%). Water consumption was also decreased, by 4.4%–8.7%. Substantial reductions of NOx emissions can be achieved for an increased generation cost of 4–13%, which is due to the higher fuel price of gas relative to coal (assuming a price of $3.87 per MMBTU (MMBTU: million British thermal units) for natural gas, and $1.89 per MMBTU for coal). However, once the system has reduced NOx emissions by approximately 50%, there is little incremental reduction in emissions due to further increases in NOx prices.

In the field of health communication, a particularly critical issue is communication to the public of environmental risks, especially on topics for which there is still a high degree of scientific uncertainty regarding risk estimates. One such topic is undoubtedly the impact of waste on people's health. The aim of this study was to evaluate the presence and characteristics of Italian websites dealing with the topic of waste and health. The keywords 'waste' and 'health' were entered in 2010 in the three most commonly used search engines, and the first five pages were analysed. The selected websites were coded according to the content analysis method. For websites of interest we evaluated the 'page rank'. Out of the 150 occurrences analysed, the number of websites found to deal with this subject was only 19, four of which were of an institutional nature. The majority of websites gave a message of increased health risk associated with the three kinds of waste disposal tackled. As regards visibility, only one of the four institutional websites maintained its position on the first page of the three search engines. We found that institutional health websites have low visibility, despite extensive media coverage of waste and health issues in Italy as a result of the Naples case, which was debated globally. This indicates that public health institutions' web strategies are basically unable to meet people's health information requirements, which could strengthen rival health information providers.

Since the 18th century, the Republic of Haiti has experienced numerous tropical cyclones. In 2011, the United Nations Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction outlined that the worldwide physical exposure to natural hazards, which includes tropical storms and hurricanes in Haiti, increased by 192 per cent between 1970 and 2010. Now, it can be hypothesized that the increased physical exposure to cyclones that made landfall in Haiti has affected the country's development path. This study shows that tropical storm risks in Haiti increased due to more physical exposure of the population in urban areas rather than a higher cyclone frequency in the proximity of Hispaniola island. In fact, the population density accelerated since the second half of the 20th century in regions where historically more storms made landfall, such as in the departments Ouest, Artibonite, Nord and Nord-Ouest including Haiti's four largest cities: Port-au-Prince, Gonaïves, Cap-Haïtien and Port-de-Paix. Thus, urbanization in and migration into storm hazard prone areas could be considered as one of the major driving forces of Haiti's fragility.

The Kyoto Protocol compares greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) using the global warming potential (GWP) with a 100 yr time-horizon. The GWP was developed, however, to illustrate the difficulties in comparing GHGs. In response, there have been many critiques of the GWP and several alternative emission metrics have been proposed. To date, there has been little focus on understanding the linkages between, and interpretations of, different emission metrics. We use an energy balance model to mathematically link the absolute GWP, absolute global temperature change potential (AGTP), absolute ocean heat perturbation (AOHP), and integrated AGTP. For pulse emissions, energy conservation requires that AOHP = AGWP − iAGTP/λ and hence AGWP and iAGTP are closely linked and converge as AOHP decays to zero. When normalizing the metrics with CO₂ (GWP, GTP, and iGTP), we find that the iGTP and GWP are similar numerically for a wide range of GHGs and time-horizons, except for very short-lived species. The similarity between the iGTP_X and GWP_X depends on how well a pulse emission of CO₂ can substitute for a pulse emission of X across a range of time-horizons. The ultimate choice of emission metric(s) and time-horizon(s) depends on policy objectives. To the extent that limiting integrated temperature change over a specific time-horizon is consistent with the broader objectives of climate policy, our analysis suggests that the GWP represents a relatively robust, transparent and policy-relevant emission metric.

We analyze five prominent time series of global temperature (over land and ocean) for their common time interval since 1979: three surface temperature records (from NASA/GISS, NOAA/NCDC and HadCRU) and two lower-troposphere (LT) temperature records based on satellite microwave sensors (from RSS and UAH). All five series show consistent global warming trends ranging from 0.014 to 0.018 K yr⁻¹. When the data are adjusted to remove the estimated impact of known factors on short-term temperature variations (El Niño/southern oscillation, volcanic aerosols and solar variability), the global warming signal becomes even more evident as noise is reduced. Lower-troposphere temperature responds more strongly to El Niño/southern oscillation and to volcanic forcing than surface temperature data. The adjusted data show warming at very similar rates to the unadjusted data, with smaller probable errors, and the warming rate is steady over the whole time interval. In all adjusted series, the two hottest years are 2009 and 2010.

Using moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery with hydrologic and meteorological data, we developed a box model to estimate the water exchange between Poyang Lake (the largest freshwater lake of China) and the Changjiang (Yangtze) River from 2000 to 2009. Significant intra- and inter-annual variability of the water budget was found, with an annual mean outflow of Poyang Lake of 120.2 ± 31.2 billion m³ during 2000–2009 and a declining trend of 5.7 billion m³ yr⁻¹ (p = 0.09). The impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) on the Changjiang River in June 2003 led to a rapid lake–river outflow of 760.6 million m³ day⁻¹, resulting in a loss of 7864.5 million m³ of water from the lake in a short period. Shortly thereafter, a statistically significant decrease in the drainage basin's runoff coefficient was discovered. These findings provide large-scale evidence on how local precipitation and the TGD control the lake's water budget, where continuous monitoring using the established approach and satellite data may provide critical information to help make water management decisions.

In recent decades, significant changes have occurred in high-latitude areas, particularly to the cryosphere. Sea ice extent and thickness have declined. In land areas, glaciers and ice sheets are experiencing negative mass balance changes, and there is substantial regional snow cover variability. Subsurface changes are also occurring in northern soils. This study focuses on these changes in the soil thermal regime, specifically the seasonally frozen ground region of Eurasia. We use a database of soil temperatures at 423 stations and estimate the maximum annual soil freezing depth at the 387 sites located on seasonally frozen ground. Evaluating seasonal freeze depth at these sites for 1930–2000 reveals a statistically significant trend of −4.5 cm/decade and a net change of −31.9 cm. Interdecadal variability is also evident such that there was no trend until the late 1960s, after which seasonal freeze depths decreased significantly until the early 1990s. From that point forward, likely through at least 2008, no change is evident. These changes in the soil thermal regime are most closely linked with the freezing index, but also mean annual air temperatures and snow depth. Antecedent conditions from the previous warm season do not appear to play a large role in affecting the subsequent cold season's seasonal freeze depths. The strong decrease in seasonal freeze depths during the 1970s to 1990s was likely the result of strong atmospheric forcing from the North Atlantic Oscillation during that time period.

Attributing observed climate change to causes is challenging. This letter communicates the physical arguments used in attribution, and the statistical methods applied to explore to what extent different possible causes can be used to explain the recent climate records. The methods use fingerprints of climate change that are identified on the basis of the physics governing our climate system, and through the use of climate model experiments. These fingerprints characterize the geographical and vertical pattern of the expected changes caused by external influences, for example, greenhouse gas increases and changes in solar radiation, taking also into account how these forcings and their effects vary over time. These time–space fingerprints can be used to discriminate between observed climate changes caused by different external factors. Attribution assessments necessarily take the natural variability of the climate system into account as well, evaluating whether an observed change can be explained in terms of this internal variability alone, and estimating the contribution of this source of variability to the observed change. Hence the assessment that a large part of the observed recent warming is anthropogenic is based on a rigorous quantitative analysis of these joint drivers and their effects, and proceeds through a much more comprehensive and layered analysis than a comparison at face value of model simulations with observations.

In this letter, we apply an extended environmental dynamic computable general equilibrium model to assess the economic consequences of implementing a total emission control policy. On the basis of emission levels in 2007, we simulate different emission reduction scenarios, ranging from 20 to 50% emission reduction, up to the year 2020. The results indicate that a modest total emission reduction target in 2020 can be achieved at low macroeconomic cost. As the stringency of policy targets increases, the macroeconomic cost will increase at a rate faster than linear. Implementation of a tradable emission permit system can counterbalance the economic costs affecting the gross domestic product and welfare. We also find that a stringent environmental policy can lead to an important shift in production, consumption and trade patterns from dirty sectors to relatively clean sectors.

Using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, several previous studies have indicated that vegetation growth significantly increased in most areas of China during the period 1982–99. In this letter, we extended the study period to 2010. We found that at the national scale the growing season (April–October) NDVI significantly increased by 0.0007 yr⁻¹ from 1982 to 2010, but the increasing trend in NDVI over the last decade decreased in comparison to that of the 1982–99 period. The trends in NDVI show significant seasonal and spatial variances. The increasing trend in April and May (AM) NDVI (0.0013 yr⁻¹) is larger than those in June, July and August (JJA) (0.0003 yr⁻¹) and September and October (SO) (0.0008 yr⁻¹). This relatively small increasing trend of JJA NDVI during 1982–2010 compared with that during 1982–99 (0.0012 yr⁻¹) (Piao et al 2003 J. Geophys. Res.—Atmos.108 4401) implies a change in the JJA vegetation growth trend, which significantly turned from increasing (0.0039 yr⁻¹) to slightly decreasing ( − 0.0002 yr⁻¹) in 1988. Regarding the spatial pattern of changes in NDVI, the growing season NDVI increased (over 0.0020 yr⁻¹) from 1982 to 2010 in southern China, while its change was close to zero in northern China, as a result of a significant changing trend reversal that occurred in the 1990s and early 2000s. In northern China, the growing season NDVI significantly increased before the 1990s as a result of warming and enhanced precipitation, but decreased after the 1990s due to drought stress strengthened by warming and reduced precipitation. Our results also show that the responses of vegetation growth to climate change vary across different seasons and ecosystems.

Pacific ocean temperature anomalies associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulate atmospheric convection and hence thunderstorm electrification. The generated current flows globally via the atmospheric electric circuit, which can be monitored anywhere on Earth. Atmospheric electricity measurements made at Shetland (in Scotland) display a mean global circuit response to ENSO that is characterized by strengthening during 'El Niño' conditions, and weakening during 'La Niña' conditions. Examining the hourly varying response indicates that a potential gradient (PG) increase around noon UT is likely to be associated with a change in atmospheric convection and resultant lightning activity over equatorial Africa and Eastern Asia. A secondary increase in PG just after midnight UT can be attributed to more shower clouds in the central Pacific ocean during an 'El Niño'.

High-yield agriculture potentially reduces pressure on forests by requiring less land to increase production. Using satellite and field data, we assessed the area deforested by industrial-scale high-yield oil palm expansion in the Peruvian Amazon from 2000 to 2010, finding that 72% of new plantations expanded into forested areas. In a focus area in the Ucayali region, we assessed deforestation for high- and smallholder low-yield oil palm plantations. Low-yield plantations accounted for most expansion overall (80%), but only 30% of their expansion involved forest conversion, contrasting with 75% for high-yield expansion. High-yield expansion minimized the total area required to achieve production but counter-intuitively at higher expense to forests than low-yield plantations. The results show that high-yield agriculture is an important but insufficient strategy to reduce pressure on forests. We suggest that high-yield agriculture can be effective in sparing forests only if coupled with incentives for agricultural expansion into already cleared lands.

Waters of the Atlantic and Pacific tropical oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), located in the poorly ventilated shadow zones of their respective ocean basins, reach the sea surface mostly in the eastern boundary and equatorial upwelling regions, thereby providing nutrients sustaining elevated biological productivity. Associated export of sinking organic matter leads to oxygen consumption at depth, and thereby helps to maintain the tropical OMZs. Biogeochemical feedback processes between nutrient-rich OMZ waters and biological production in the upwelling regions and their net impact on the evolution of the OMZs depend on the strengths of the flow pathways connecting OMZs and the upper ocean, because even though water has to be isolated below the mixed layer for some time in order for OMZs to develop, it has to be brought up to the surface mixed layer eventually in order to exchange properties with the atmosphere.

Here, we investigate the connections between OMZs and the surface mixed layer, and their sensitivity to global warming with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model by analyzing the fate of simulated floats released in the OMZs. We find that under present-day climate conditions, on decadal time scales a much larger portion of the model's OMZ waters reaches the surface ocean in the Pacific than in the Atlantic Ocean: within 20 years, 75% in the Pacific and 38% in the Atlantic. When atmospheric CO₂ is doubled, the fraction of modeled OMZ waters reaching the upwelling in the same time decreases by about 25% in both oceans. As a consequence, feedback between biogeochemical processes in OMZs and in the surface ocean is likely to be weakened in the future.

Observations of the areal extent of seasonal hypoxia over the Texas–Louisiana continental shelf from 1985 to 2010 are correlated with a variety of physical and biogeochemical forcing mechanisms. Significant correlation is found between hypoxic area and both nitrogen load (r² = 0.24) and east–west wind speed (r² = 0.16). There is also a significant increasing trend in the areal extent of hypoxia in time; a linearly increasing trend over the entire record (r² = 0.17), a step increase in area for the years 1994 and beyond (r² = 0.21), and a step increase for 1993 and beyond (r² = 0.29) were all found to be significantly correlated with area. The year 1988, often included in other studies, was found to be a statistical outlier, in that the statistical regression properties are strongly modified when this year is included. The exclusion of any other year does not have as great an effect as excluding 1988 from the record. The year 1989 is also excluded, as this year had no full shelf survey, for a total of 24 years of data for the record. Multivariable regression models using all possible combinations of the forcing variables considered were calculated. The best performing models included east–west wind, either a linear trend in time or step in time (1994 and beyond), and either nitrogen load or river discharge combined with nitrogen concentration. The range of adjusted correlation coefficients ranged from r² = 0.47 to 0.67. The best model (east–west wind, a step increase in time 1994 and beyond, river discharge, and nitrogen concentration) has a standard error of 3008  km².

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed as a nested regional climate model to study the effect of a giant wind farm on warm-season precipitation in the eastern two-thirds of the USA. The boundary conditions for WRF are supplied by 62 years of NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) global reanalysis. In the model, the presence of a mid-west wind farm, either giant or small, can have an enormous impact on the weather and the amount of precipitation for one season, which is consistent with the known sensitivity of long-term weather forecasts to initial conditions. The effect on climate is less strong. In the average precipitation of 62 warm seasons, there is a statistically significant 1.0% enhancement of precipitation in a multi-state area surrounding and to the south-east of the wind farm.

We investigate the potential environmental impacts of a large-scale adoption of wind power to meet up to 22% of the world's growing electricity demand. The analysis builds on life cycle assessments of generic onshore and offshore wind farms, meant to represent average conditions for global deployment of wind power. We scale unit-based findings to estimate aggregated emissions of building, operating and decommissioning wind farms toward 2050, taking into account changes in the electricity mix in manufacturing. The energy scenarios investigated are the International Energy Agency's BLUE scenarios. We estimate 1.7–2.6 Gt CO₂-eq climate change, 2.1–3.2 Mt N-eq marine eutrophication, 9.2–14 Mt NMVOC photochemical oxidant formation, and 9.5–15 Mt SO₂-eq terrestrial acidification impact category indicators due to global wind power in 2007–50. Assuming lifetimes 5 yr longer than reference, the total climate change indicator values are reduced by 8%. In the BLUE Map scenario, construction of new capacity contributes 64%, and repowering of existing capacity 38%, to total cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. The total emissions of wind electricity range between 4% and 14% of the direct emissions of the replaced fossil-fueled power plants. For all impact categories, the indirect emissions of displaced fossil power are larger than the total emissions caused by wind power.

Land use change is a principal force and inherent element of global environmental change, threatening biodiversity, natural ecosystems, and their services. However, our ability to anticipate future land use change is severely limited by a lack of understanding of how major socio-economic disturbances (e.g., wars, revolutions, policy changes, and economic crises) affect land use. Here we explored to what extent socio-economic disturbances can shift land use systems onto a different trajectory, and whether this can result in less intensive land use. Our results show that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 caused a major reorganization in land use systems. The effects of this socio-economic disturbance were at least as drastic as those of the nuclear disaster in the Chernobyl region in 1986. While the magnitudes of land abandonment were similar in Ukraine and Belarus in the case of the nuclear disaster (28% and 36% of previously farmed land, respectively), the rates of land abandonment after the collapse of the Soviet Union in Ukraine were twice as high as those in Belarus. This highlights that national policies and institutions play an important role in mediating effects of socio-economic disturbances. The socio-economic disturbance that we studied caused major hardship for local populations, yet also presents opportunities for conservation, as natural ecosystems are recovering on large areas of former farmland. Our results illustrate the potential of socio-economic disturbances to revert land use intensification and the important role institutions and policies play in determining land use systems' resilience against such socio-economic disturbances.

The collapse of socialism in 1989 triggered a phase of institutional restructuring in Central and Eastern Europe. Several countries chose to privatize forests or to return them to pre-socialist owners. Here, we assess the implications of forest restitution on the terrestrial carbon balance. New forest owners have strong incentives to immediately clearcut their forests, resulting in increased terrestrial emissions. On the other hand, logging generally decreased after 1989 and forests are expanding on unused or abandoned farmland, both of which may offset increased logging on restituted forests. We mapped changes in forest cover for the entire country of Romania using Landsat satellite images from 1990 to 2010. We use our satellite estimates, together with historic data on logging rates and changes in forest cover, to parameterize a carbon book-keeping model for estimating the terrestrial carbon flux (above and below ground) as a consequence of land use change and forest harvest. High logging rates during socialism resulted in substantial terrestrial carbon emissions and Romania was a net carbon source until the 1980s. After the collapse of the Soviet Union forest harvest rates decreased dramatically, but since restitution laws were implemented they have increased by 60% (from 15 122 ± 5397 ha y ^{− 1} in 2000 to 23 884 ± 11 510 ha y ^{− 1} in 2010), but still remain lower than prior to 1989. Romania currently remains a terrestrial carbon sink, offsetting 7.6% ± 2.5% of anthropogenic carbon emissions. A further increase in logging could result in net emissions from terrestrial ecosystems during the coming decades. However, forest expansion on degraded land and abandoned farmland offers great potential for carbon sequestration.

This study focused on structural analysis of ground carbon storage following fires in light conifer stands of the Lower Angara region (Siberia, Russia). Experimental fires of varying frontal intensity were conducted at Scots pine and mixed larch forests of southern taiga. Considerable amounts of surface and ground forest fuels (21–38 tC ha ^{− 1}) enhanced low- to high-intensity fires. Post-fire carbon storage decreased by 16–49% depending on fire intensity and rate of spread, with depth of burn being 0.9–6.6 cm. Carbon emissions varied from 4.48 to 15.89 t ha ^{− 1} depending on fire intensity and forest type. Depth of burn and carbon emissions for four major site types were correlated with a weather-based fire hazard index.

Current snow state descriptions and estimates of major snow characteristics (snow cover duration, maximum winter snow depth, snow water equivalent) up to 2010 have been recorded from 958 meteorological stations in Russia. Apart from the description of long-term averages of snow characteristics, the estimates of their change that are averaged over quasi-homogeneous climatic regions are derived and regional differences in the change of snow characteristics are studied. In recent decades, the Russian territory has experienced an increase in snow depth, both winter average and maximum snow depths, against the background of global temperature rise and sea ice reduction in the northern hemisphere. The first generalized regional characteristics of maximum snow water equivalent in the winter season have been obtained. According to field observations, an increase in water supply has been revealed in the north of the East European Plain, in the western part by 4.5% (10 yr) ^{− 1} and in the eastern part by 6% (10 yr) ^{− 1}. This characteristic also increases by ∼ 6% (10 yr) ^{− 1} in the southern forest zone of Western Siberia and in the Far East. Snow water equivalent in central Eastern Siberia increases by 3.4% (10 yr) ^{− 1}. From snow course observations in the forest, a tendency for a decrease in water supply (−6.4% (10 yr) ^{− 1} is only found in the southwest of the East European Plain. Snow cover characteristics, being a product of several climate-forming factors that simultaneously affected them, change nonlinearly and different characteristics may and often do change differently with time. Therefore, one cannot assume that having information about the trend of one of the snow characteristics implies knowledge of the trend sign of others. In particular, whilst during the past four decades over the Russian Federation most snow cover characteristics—including the most important of them responsible for water supply—have increased, the only quantity that is reliably monitored from space (snow cover extent) has decreased, but in the last two decades this decrease has ceased. These tendencies are opposite to those observed in Canada and Alaska.

BALTEX is an environmental research network dealing with the Earth system of the entire Baltic Sea drainage basin. Important elements include the water and energy cycle, climate variability and change, water management and extreme events, and related impacts on biogeochemical cycles. BALTEX was founded in 1993 as a GEWEX continental-scale experiment and is currently in its second 10 yr phase. Phase I (1993–2002) was primarily dedicated to hydrological, meteorological and oceanographic processes in the Baltic Sea drainage basin, hence mostly dealt with the physical aspects of the system. Scientific focus was on the hydrological cycle and the exchange of energy between the atmosphere, the Baltic Sea and the surface of its catchment. The BALTEX study area was hydrologically defined as the Baltic Sea drainage basin. The second 10 yr phase of BALTEX (Phase II: 2003–12) has strengthened regional climate research, water management issues, biogeochemical cycles and overarching efforts to reach out to stakeholders and decision makers, as well as to foster communication and education. Achievements of BALTEX Phase II have been the establishment of an assessment report of regional climate change and its impacts on the Baltic Sea basin (from hydrological to biological and socio-economic), the further development of regional physical climate models and the integration of biogeochemical and ecosystem models. BALTEX features a strong infrastructure, with an international secretariat and a publication series, and organizes various workshops and conferences. This article gives an overview of the BALTEX programme, with an emphasis on Phase II, with some examples from BALTEX-related research.

Surface air temperature (T_a) is a critical variable in the energy and water cycle of the Earth–atmosphere system and is a key input element for hydrology and land surface models. This is a preliminary study to evaluate estimation of T_a from satellite remotely sensed land surface temperature (T_s) by using MODIS-Terra data over two Eurasia regions: northern China and fUSSR. High correlations are observed in both regions between station-measured T_a and MODIS T_s. The relationships between the maximum T_a and daytime T_s depend significantly on land cover types, but the minimum T_a and nighttime T_s have little dependence on the land cover types. The largest difference between maximum T_a and daytime T_s appears over the barren and sparsely vegetated area during the summer time. Using a linear regression method, the daily maximum T_a were estimated from 1 km resolution MODIS T_s under clear-sky conditions with coefficients calculated based on land cover types, while the minimum T_a were estimated without considering land cover types. The uncertainty, mean absolute error (MAE), of the estimated maximum T_a varies from 2.4 °C over closed shrublands to 3.2 °C over grasslands, and the MAE of the estimated minimum T_a is about 3.0 °C.

Humans have traditionally cultivated steppe and forest-steppe on fertile soils for agriculture. Forests are predicted to shift northwards in a warmer climate and are likely to be replaced by forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems. We analyzed potential climate change impacts on agriculture in south-central Siberia believing that agriculture in traditionally cold Siberia may benefit from warming. Simple models determining crop range and regression models determining crop yields were constructed and applied to climate change scenarios for various time frames: pre-1960, 1960–90 and 1990–2010 using historic data and data taken from 2020 and 2080 HadCM3 B1 and A2 scenarios. From 50 to 85% of central Siberia is predicted to be climatically suitable for agriculture by the end of the century, and only soil potential would limit crop advance and expansion to the north. Crop production could increase twofold. Future Siberian climatic resources could provide the potential for a great variety of crops to grow that previously did not exist on these lands. Traditional Siberian crops could gradually shift as far as 500 km northwards (about 50–70 km/decade) within suitable soil conditions, and new crops nonexistent today may be introduced in the dry south that would necessitate irrigation. Agriculture in central Siberia would likely benefit from climate warming. Adaptation measures would sustain and promote food security in a warmer Siberia.

The fire history of the northern larch forests within the permafrost zone in a portion of northern Siberia (∼66°N, 100°E) was studied. Since there is little to no human activity in this area, fires within the study area were mostly caused by lightning. Fire return intervals (FRI) were estimated on the basis of burn marks on tree stems and dates of tree natality. FRI values varied from 130 to 350 yr with a 200 ± 50 yr mean. For southerly larch dominated communities, FRI was found to be shorter (77 ± 20 yr at ∼ 61°N, and 82 ± 7 at 64°N), and it was longer at the northern boundary (∼71°) of larch stands (320 ± 50 yr). During the Little Ice Age period in the 16th–18th centuries, FRI was approximately twice as long those as recorded in this study. Fire caused changes in the soil including increases in soil drainage and permafrost thawing depth, and a radial growth increase to about twice the background value (with more than six times observed in extreme cases). This effect may simulate the predicted warming impact on the larch growth in the permafrost zone.

The analysis of long-term changes of the major climate variables was conducted using a time series of observations from meteorological stations that had continuous observations from 65 up to 120 years. The surface air temperature in the region is characterized by considerable temporal variability which is most apparent in the winter months and thus in the annual values. The positive regional trends of the surface air temperature vary from 0.2 to 0.6 °C per decade. On a century time scale, a tendency for a reduction of the annual precipitation totals prevails. However, the trend values are much lower than the interannual variability of precipitation.

Analyzing the historical climatic conditions of the Baikal Region, we found that the occurrence of drought is possible in any month of the vegetation period, particularly in May, when the maximum numbers of dry years (33–64%), and the years with strong droughts (8–15%) were documented. The influence of climatic conditions on annual wood growth was studied using the response function technique. Results of this analysis show that in the Middle Priangarye region, the greatest impact upon the tree ring growth of pine reflects the mean April temperature, and in the Upper Priangarye region, annual atmospheric precipitation totals (for the hydrological year) control this growth.

The spatiotemporal pattern of the dynamics of surface air temperature and precipitation and those bioclimatic indices that are based upon factors which control vegetation cover are investigated. Surface air temperature and precipitation data are retrieved from the ECMWF ERA Interim reanalysis and APHRODITE JMA datasets, respectively, which were found to be the closest to the observational data. We created an archive of bioclimatic indices for further detailed studies of interrelations between local climate and vegetation cover changes, which include carbon uptake changes related to changes of vegetation types and amount, as well as with spatial shifts of vegetation zones. Meanwhile, analysis reveals significant positive trends of the growing season length accompanied by a statistically significant increase of the sums of the growing degree days and precipitation over the south of West Siberia. The trends hint at a tendency for an increase of vegetation ecosystems' productivity across the south of West Siberia (55°–60°N, 59°–84°E) in the past several decades and (if sustained) may lead to a future increase of vegetation productivity in this region.

We used a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to examine the methane (CH₄) exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere in Northern Eurasia from 1971 to 2100. Multiple model simulations using various wetland extent datasets and climate change scenarios were conducted to assess the uncertainty of CH₄ fluxes, including emissions and consumption. On the basis of these simulations we estimate the current net emissions in the region to be 20–24 Tg CH₄ yr ^{− 1} (1 Tg = 10¹² g), two-thirds of which are emitted during the summer. In response to climate change over the 21st century, the annual CH₄ emissions in the region are projected to increase at a rate of 0.06 Tg CH₄ yr ^{− 1}, which is an order of magnitude greater than that of annual CH₄ consumption. Further, the annual net CH₄ emissions are projected to increase by 6–51% under various wetland extent datasets and climate scenarios by the end of the 21st century, relative to present conditions. Spatial patterns of net CH₄ emissions were determined by wetland extent. Net CH₄ emissions were dominated by wetlands within boreal forests, grasslands and wet tundra areas in the region. Correlation analyses indicated that water table depth and soil temperature were the two most important environmental controls on both CH₄ emissions and consumption in the region. Our uncertainty analyses indicated that the uncertainty in wetland extent had a larger effect on future CH₄ emissions than the uncertainty in future climate. This study suggests that better characterization of the spatial distribution and the natural diversity of wetlands should be a research priority for quantifying CH₄ fluxes in this region.

Frequent measurements of dissolved organic (DOC) and inorganic (DIC) carbon concentrations in rivers during snowmelt, the entire ice-free season, and winter were made in five large watersheds (15 000–174 000 km²) of the Central Siberian Plateau (Yenisey River basin). These differ in the degree of continuous permafrost coverage, mean annual air temperature, and the proportion of tundra and forest vegetation. With an annual DOC export from the catchment areas of 2.8–4.7 gC m ^{− 2} as compared to an annual DIC export of 1.0–2.8 gC m ^{− 2}, DOC was the dominant component of terrigenous C released to rivers. There was strong temporal variation in the discharge of DOC and DIC. Like for other rivers of the pan-arctic and boreal zones, snowmelt dominated annual fluxes, being 55–71% for water runoff, 64–82% for DOC and 37–41% for DIC. Likewise, DOC and DIC exhibited also a strong spatial variation in C fluxes, with both dissolved C species decreasing from south to north. The rivers of the southern part of the plateau had the largest flow-weighted DOC concentrations among those previously reported for Siberian rivers, but the smallest flow-weighted DIC concentrations. In the study area, DOC and DIC fluxes were negatively correlated with the distribution of continuous permafrost and positively correlated with mean annual air temperature. A synthesis of literature data shows similar trends from west to east, with an eastward decrease of dissolved C concentrations and an increased proportion of DOC in the total dissolved C flux. It appears that there are two contemporary limitations for river export of terrigenous C across Siberia: (1) low productivity of ecosystems with respect to potentially mobilizable organic C, slow weathering rates with concomitant small formation of bicarbonate, and/or wildfire disturbance limit the pools of organic and inorganic C that can be mobilized for transport in rivers (source-limited), and (2) mobilization of available pools of C is constrained by low precipitation in the severe continental climate of interior Siberia (transport-limited). Climate warming may reduce the source limitation by enhancing primary production and weathering rates, while causes leading to surmounting the transport limitation remain debatable due to uncertainties in predictions of precipitation trends and other likely sources of reported increase of river discharges.

A simple regression model for calculating annual actual evapotranspiration (ET) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), as well as annual transpiration (TR) of mature boreal forests grown in the European part of Russia in the Holocene using paleoclimatic and paleobotanical data (air temperature, precipitation, forest species compositions) is presented. The model is based on nonlinear approximations of annual values of ET, TR and PET obtained by the Levenberg–Marquardt method using the results of numerical simulations of ET, TR and PET provided by a process-based Mixfor-SVAT model for forests with different species compositions under various thermal and moistening conditions. The results of ET, TR and PET reconstructions for the Holocene show large variability and high correlation with the air temperature pattern. Minimal values of ET and PET are obtained for the Younger Dryas cold phase (11.0–10.0 ¹⁴C kyr BP) when ET varied between 320 and 370  mm yr ^{− 1} and PET varied between 410 and 480 mm yr ^{− 1}. During the Late Atlantic periods of the Holocene (4.5–5.1 ¹⁴C kyr BP), ET and PET reached maximal values (ET: 430–450  mm yr ^{− 1} and PET: 550–570 mm yr ^{− 1}).

Methane emissions from mires in all climate–vegetation zones of West Siberia (forest steppe, subtaiga, south taiga, middle taiga, north taiga, forest tundra and tundra) were measured using a static chamber method. The observed fluxes varied considerably from small negative values in forested bogs and palsa to hundreds of mgC m ^{− 2} h ^{− 1} in ponds and wet hollows. Observed data were consolidated in the form of the empirical model of methane emissions designated as the 'standard model'. The model is based on medians of CH₄ flux distributions of eight different micro-landscape types depending on their location and estimated duration of methane emission period within the climate–vegetation zone. The current version (Bc8) of the 'standard model' estimates methane flux from West Siberia mires at 2.93 ± 0.97 TgC CH₄ yr ^{− 1} that accounts for about 2.4% of the total methane emission from all mires or 0.7% of global methane emission from all sources.

On the basis of the climate change simulations conducted using a high resolution regional climate model, the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model, RegCM3, at 25 km grid spacing, future changes in snow cover over China are analyzed. The simulations are carried out for the period of 1951–2100 following the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. The results suggest good performances of the model in simulating the number of snow cover days and the snow cover depth, as well as the starting and ending dates of snow cover to the present day (1981–2000). Their spatial distributions and amounts show fair consistency between the simulation and observation, although with some discrepancies. In general, decreases in the number of snow cover days and the snow cover depth, together with postponed snow starting dates and advanced snow ending dates, are simulated for the future, except in some places where the opposite appears. The most dramatic changes are found over the Tibetan Plateau among the three major snow cover areas of Northeast, Northwest and the Tibetan Plateau in China.

Characteristics of the snow water equivalent (SWE) over high-latitude Eurasia and its relation with precipitation in China during January, February and March (JFM) are investigated. The JFM Eurasian SWE exhibited a decadal downward shift in the late 1990s, marked by a frequently positive phase in 1979–98 and a negative phase afterward. The decadal shift corresponds to anomalous northeasterly flow over southeastern China. Consequently, warm and moist airflow from tropical oceans is weakened, accompanied by reduced rainfall over southeastern China. The US National Centers for the Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System (CFS) capture both the interannual variation and the decreasing trend of JFM Eurasian SWE reasonably well for several months in advance. The relationship between Eurasian SWE and southeastern China rainfall is also captured by the CFS in the prediction.

Permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) has degraded over the last few decades. Its ecological effects have attracted great concern. Previous studies focused mostly at plot scale, and hypothesized that degradation of permafrost would cause lowering of the water table and drying of shallow soil and then degradation of alpine grassland. However, none has been done to test the hypothesis at basin scale. In this study, for the first time, we investigated the relationships between land surface temperature (LST) and fractional vegetation cover (FVC) in different types of permafrost zone to infer the limiting condition (water or energy) of grassland growth on the source region of Shule River Basin, which is located in the north-eastern edge of the QTP. LST was obtained from MODIS Aqua products at 1 km resolution, while FVC was upscaled from quadrat (50 cm) to the same resolution as LST, using 30 m resolution NDVI data of the Chinese HJ satellite. FVC at quadrat scale was estimated by analyzing pictures taken with a multi-spectral camera. Results showed that (1) retrieval of FVC at quadrat scale using a multi-spectral camera was both more accurate and more efficient than conventional methods and (2) the limiting factor of vegetation growth transitioned from energy in the extreme stable permafrost zone to water in the seasonal frost zone. Our study suggested that alpine grassland would respond differently to permafrost degradation in different types of permafrost zone. Future studies should consider overall effects of permafrost degradation, and avoid the shortcomings of existing studies, which focus too much on the adverse effects.

Glaciers are distributed in the Nyainqntanglha Mountains, Himalayas, Tanggula Mountains, Gangdise Mountains and Hengduan Mountains in Southwestern China. Daily temperature and precipitation data from 111 stations, together with the records of glacier changes, indicate that temperature patterns during 1961–2008 were consistent with warming at a statistically significant level. Seasonal warming was greatest in autumn and winter. Temperature rise showed a significant relationship with sea surface temperature in the Western Pacific, net longwave radiation flux, altitude, sunshine hours, strengthening anticyclonic circulations in summer and anomalous cyclonic circulation in winter. The increase was more apparent in higher altitude areas than in lower ones. Precipitation variations were less marked than those of temperature, generally showing weak decreasing trends during 1961–2008. Increasing trends were apparent only in spring and winter, when regional trends of precipitation increases with altitude also were evident. The strengthening Western Pacific Subtropical Highs were related to precipitation variation. Against the background of increasing temperature, especially the increasing warming with altitude, the fronts of 32 glaciers and areas of 13 glacial basins have retreated, mass losses of 10 glaciers have been considerable, glacial lakes in six regions have expanded and melt water discharge of four basins has also increased, but these glaciers and basins in our study are only a fraction of the retreating glaciers over southwestern China.

To assess ongoing changes in high latitude vegetation productivity we compared spatiotemporal patterns in remotely sensed vegetation productivity in the tundra and boreal zones of North America and Eurasia. We compared the long-term GIMMS (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies) NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) to the more recent and advanced MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) NDVI data set, and mapped circumpolar trends in a gross productivity metric derived from the former. We then analyzed how temporal changes in productivity differed along an evergreen–deciduous gradient in boreal Alaska, along a shrub cover gradient in Arctic Alaska, and during succession after fire in boreal North America and northern Eurasia. We find that the earlier reported contrast between trends of increasing tundra and decreasing boreal forest productivity has amplified in recent years, particularly in North America. Decreases in boreal forest productivity are most prominent in areas of denser tree cover and, particularly in Alaska, evergreen forest stands. On the North Slope of Alaska, however, increases in tundra productivity do not appear restricted to areas of higher shrub cover, which suggests enhanced productivity across functional vegetation types. Differences in the recovery of post-disturbance vegetation productivity between North America and Eurasia are described using burn chronosequences, and the potential factors driving regional differences are discussed.

Analysis of coarse resolution (∼1 km) satellite imagery has provided evidence of vegetation changes in arctic regions since the mid-1980s that may be attributable to climate warming. Here we investigate finer-scale changes to northern vegetation over the same period using stacks of 30 m resolution Landsat TM and ETM + satellite images. Linear trends in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and tasseled cap indices are derived for four widely spaced national parks in northern Canada. The trends are related to predicted changes in fractional shrub and other vegetation covers using regression tree classifiers trained with plot measurements and high resolution imagery. We find a consistent pattern of greening (6.1–25.5% of areas increasing) and predicted increases in vascular vegetation in all four parks that is associated with positive temperature trends. Coarse resolution (3 km) NDVI trends were not detected in two of the parks that had less intense greening. A range of independent studies and observations corroborate many of the major changes observed.

The response of boreal forests to anthropogenic climate change remains uncertain, with potentially significant impacts for the global carbon cycle, albedo, canopy evapotranspiration and feedbacks into further climate change. Here, we focus on tree-ring data from the Firth River site at treeline in northeastern Alaska, in a tundra–forest transition region where pronounced warming has already occurred. Both tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies were developed to identify the nature of tree growth and density responses to climatic and environmental changes in white spruce (Picea glauca), a dominant Arctic treeline species. Good agreement was found between the interannual fluctuations in the TRW chronology and summer temperatures from 1901 to 1950, whereas no significant relationships were found from 1951 to 2001, supporting evidence of significant divergence between TRW and summer temperature in the second half of the 20th century. In contrast to this unstable climatic response in the TRW record, the high frequency July–August temperature signal in the MXD series seems reasonably stable through the 20th century. Wider and denser rings were more frequent during the 20th century, particularly after 1950, than in previous centuries. Finally, comparison between the tree-ring proxies and a satellite-derived vegetation index suggests that TRW and MXD correlate with vegetation productivity at the landscape level at different times of the growing season.

Deciduous shrub abundance is increasing across the Arctic in response to climatic warming. In a recent field manipulation experiment in which shrubs were removed from a plot and compared to a control plot with shrubs, Blok et al (2010 Glob. Change Biol.16 1296–305) found that shrubs protect the ground through shading, resulting in a ∼ 9% shallower active layer thickness (ALT) under shrubs compared to grassy-tundra, which led them to argue that continued Arctic shrub expansion could mitigate future permafrost thaw. We utilize the Community Land Model (CLM4) coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) to evaluate this hypothesis. CLM4 simulates shallower ALT (∼− 11 cm) under shrubs, consistent with the field manipulation study. However, in an idealized pan-Arctic + 20% shrub area experiment, atmospheric heating, driven mainly by surface albedo changes related to protrusion of shrub stems above the spring snowpack, leads to soil warming and deeper ALT (∼+ 10 cm). Therefore, if climate feedbacks are considered, shrub expansion may actually increase rather than decrease permafrost vulnerability. When we account for blowing-snow redistribution from grassy-tundra to shrubs, shifts in snowpack distribution in low versus high shrub area simulations counter the climate warming impact, resulting in a grid cell mean ALT that is unchanged. These results reinforce the need to consider vegetation dynamics and blowing-snow processes in the permafrost thaw model projections.

Understanding the responses of the arctic tundra biome to a changing climate requires knowledge of the complex interactions among the climate, soils and biological system. This study investigates the individual and interaction effects of climate change and reindeer grazing across a variety of climate zones and soil texture types on tundra vegetation community dynamics using an arctic vegetation model that incorporates the reindeer diet, where grazing is a function of both foliar nitrogen concentration and reindeer forage preference. We found that grazing is important, in addition to the latitudinal climate gradient, in controlling tundra plant community composition, explaining about 13% of the total variance in model simulations for all arctic tundra subzones. The decrease in biomass of lichen, deciduous shrub and graminoid plant functional types caused by grazing is potentially dampened by climate warming. Moss biomass had a nonlinear response to increased grazing intensity, and such responses were stronger when warming was present. Our results suggest that evergreen shrubs may benefit from increased grazing intensity due to their low palatability, yet a growth rate sensitivity analysis suggests that changes in nutrient uptake rates may result in different shrub responses to grazing pressure. Heavy grazing caused plant communities to shift from shrub tundra toward moss, graminoid-dominated tundra in subzones C and D when evergreen shrub growth rates were decreased in the model. The response of moss, lichen and forbs to warming varied across the different subzones. Initial vegetation responses to climate change during transient warming are different from the long term equilibrium responses due to shifts in the controlling mechanisms (nutrient limitation versus competition) within tundra plant communities.

Shrub expansion is a global phenomenon that is gaining increased attention in the Arctic. Recent work employing the use of oblique aerial photographs suggested a consistent pattern of positive change in shrub cover across the North Slope of Alaska. The greatest amounts of change occurred in valley slopes and floodplains. We studied the association between shrub cover change and topographically derived hydrologic characteristics in five areas in northern Alaska between the 1970s and 2000s. Change in total shrub cover ranged from − 0.65% to 46.56%. Change in floodplain shrub cover ranged from 3.38% to 76.22%. Shrubs are preferentially expanding into areas of higher topographic wetness index (TWI) values where the potential for moisture accumulation or drainage is greater. In addition, we found that floodplain shrub development was strongly associated with high TWI values and a decreasing average distance between shrubs and the river bank. This suggests an interacting influence of substrate removal and stabilization as a consequence of increased vegetation cover.

To determine the role lemmings play in structuring plant communities and their contribution to the 'greening of the Arctic', we measured plant cover and biomass in 50 + year old lemming exclosures and control plots in the coastal tundra near Barrow, Alaska. The response of plant functional types to herbivore exclusion varied among land cover types. In general, the abundance of lichens and bryophytes increased with the exclusion of lemmings, whereas graminoids decreased, although the magnitude of these responses varied among land cover types. These results suggest that sustained lemming activity promotes a higher biomass of vascular plant functional types than would be expected without their presence and highlights the importance of considering herbivory when interpreting patterns of greening in the Arctic. In light of the rapid environmental change ongoing in the Arctic and the potential regional to global implications of this change, further exploration regarding the long-term influence of arvicoline rodents on ecosystem function (e.g. carbon and energy balance) should be considered a research priority.

Phenology of vegetation is a sensitive and valuable indicator of the dynamic responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Therefore, to better understand and predict ecosystems dynamics, it is important to reduce uncertainties in detecting phenological changes. Here, changes in phenology over the past several decades across the northern high-latitude region (≥60°N) were examined by calibrating and analyzing time series of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Over the past decade (2000–10), an expanded length of the growing season (LOS) was detected by MODIS, largely due to an earlier start of the growing season (SOS) by 4.7 days per decade and a delayed end of the growing season (EOS) by 1.6 days per decade over the northern high latitudes. There were significant differences between North America and Eurasia in phenology from 2000 to 2010 based on MODIS data (SOS: df = 21, F = 49.02, p < 0.0001; EOS: df = 21, F = 49.25, p < 0.0001; LOS: df = 21, F = 79.40, p < 0.0001). In northern America, SOS advanced by 11.5 days per decade, and EOS was delayed by 2.2 days per decade. In Eurasia, SOS advanced by 2.7 days per decade, and EOS was delayed by 3.5 days per decade. SOS has likely advanced due to the warming Arctic during April and May. Our results suggest that in recent decades the longer vegetation growing seasons can be attributed to more advanced SOS rather than delayed EOS. AVHRR detected longer LOS over the past three decades, largely related to delayed EOS rather than advanced SOS. These two datasets are significantly different in key phenological parameters (SOS: df = 17, F = 14.63, p = 0.0015; EOS: df = 17, F = 38.69, p < 0.0001; LOS: df = 17, F = 16.47, p = 0.0009) from 2000 to 2008 over the northern high latitudes. Thus, further inter-calibration between the sensors is needed to resolve the inconsistency and to better understand long-term trends of vegetation growth in the Arctic.

Recent research using repeat photography, long-term ecological monitoring and dendrochronology has documented shrub expansion in arctic, high-latitude and alpine tundra ecosystems. Here, we (1) synthesize these findings, (2) present a conceptual framework that identifies mechanisms and constraints on shrub increase, (3) explore causes, feedbacks and implications of the increased shrub cover in tundra ecosystems, and (4) address potential lines of investigation for future research. Satellite observations from around the circumpolar Arctic, showing increased productivity, measured as changes in 'greenness', have coincided with a general rise in high-latitude air temperatures and have been partly attributed to increases in shrub cover. Studies indicate that warming temperatures, changes in snow cover, altered disturbance regimes as a result of permafrost thaw, tundra fires, and anthropogenic activities or changes in herbivory intensity are all contributing to observed changes in shrub abundance. A large-scale increase in shrub cover will change the structure of tundra ecosystems and alter energy fluxes, regional climate, soil–atmosphere exchange of water, carbon and nutrients, and ecological interactions between species. In order to project future rates of shrub expansion and understand the feedbacks to ecosystem and climate processes, future research should investigate the species or trait-specific responses of shrubs to climate change including: (1) the temperature sensitivity of shrub growth, (2) factors controlling the recruitment of new individuals, and (3) the relative influence of the positive and negative feedbacks involved in shrub expansion.

We present a critical evaluation of the above-ground biomass (AGB) map of Africa published in this journal by Baccini et al (2008 Environ. Res. Lett.3 045011). We first test their map against an independent dataset of 1154 scientific inventory plots from 16 African countries, and find only weak correspondence between our field plots and the AGB value given for the surrounding 1 km pixel by Baccini et al. Separating our field data using a continental landcover classification suggests that the Baccini et al map underestimates the AGB of forests and woodlands, while overestimating the AGB of savannas and grasslands. Secondly, we compare their map to 216 000 × 0.25 ha spaceborne LiDAR footprints. A comparison between Lorey's height (basal-area-weighted average height) derived from the LiDAR data for 1 km pixels containing at least five LiDAR footprints again does not support the hypothesis that the Baccini et al map is accurate, and suggests that it significantly underestimates the AGB of higher AGB areas. We conclude that this is due to the unsuitability of some of the field data used by Baccini et al to create their map, and overfitting in their model, resulting in low accuracies outside the small areas from which their field data are drawn.

Biomass mapping using satellite imagery is a rapidly evolving field that has been greatly facilitated in recent years by the advent of LiDAR remote sensing coupled with co-located field measurements. The biomass map of Africa that we published in 2008 did not take direct advantage of coincident field and LiDAR measurements, as our more recent efforts have. The criticisms of our earlier map by Mitchard et al (2011 Environ. Res. Lett.6 049001) are duly noted and worthwhile, although they are also limited in several respects that we describe. Most notably, they assess our map with field data sets that are only representative of a subset of conditions across the study domain, thus they not only inadequately characterize undisturbed tropical forest regions but also the diverse disturbance dynamics that are captured in satellite imagery. We point out the limitations of their assessment and focus on a way forward, moving beyond both inadequate field sampling and remote sensing to an approach the captures the full range of dynamics by directly coupling field and satellite measurements.

In the first paragraph of the section '2. Data sets and methods', the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data set used was incorrectly referred to as GIMMS-NDVI version 3G with a 0.084° spatial resolution. This should be corrected to GIMMS-NDVI version G with a 0.07° spatial resolution.

Accordingly, the acknowledgement should state 'We would like to thank ... Jim Tucker and Jorge Pinzon for providing the GIMMS version G data', instead of 'We would like to thank ... Jorge Pinzon for providing the GIMMS 3G data'.

In the second paragraph of the section '2.3 Meteorological and remote sensing data', the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data set used was incorrectly referred to as GIMMS-NDVI version 3G with a 0.084° spatial resolution. This should be corrected to GIMMS-NDVI version G with a 0.07° spatial resolution.

The correct reference for this data set is: Tucker C J , Pinzon J E, Brown M E, Slayback D A, Pak E W, Mahoney R, Vermote E F and El Saleous N 2005 An extended AVHRR 8-km NDVI dataset compatible with MODIS and SPOT vegetation NDVI data Int. J. Remote. Sens.26 4485–98

The first part of the first sentence of the acknowledgments section should read: 'This work was supported by China National Basic Research (973) Program 2009CB421404...'

In our discussion of the use of global warming potential (GWP) values in the Howarth et al (2011) paper, our text implies that the GISS group's 2009 and 2010 papers (Shindell et al 2009 and Unger et al 2010) were contradictory. Such an interpretation does not reflect the conclusions of those papers and was not our intention. First, the 2009 and 2010 papers address GWP and radiative forcing, respectively. Our intentions in that paragraph were (a) to illustrate the possible ways that the GWP and radiative forcing discussions in the scientific community were misapplied to lifecycle analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from unconventional gas extraction, and (b) to underscore that the reasonable questions about GWP raised by Shindell et al (2009) are a justification for retaining a broader, rather than narrower, range of GWP possibilities for this calculation.

References

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Shindell D T, Faluvegi G, Koch D M, Schmidt G A, Unger N and Bauer S E 2009 Improved attribution of climate forcing to emissions Science326 716–8

Unger N, Bond T C, Wang J S, Koch D M, Menon S, Shindell D T and Bauer S E 2010 Attribution of climate forcing to economic sectors Proc. Natl Acad. Sci.107 3382–7